What’s going on in Iran?

In this piece, I’m going to present a realistic view of the forces in action in Iran’s current strife of 2022

You’ve probably been hearing about the death of an Iranian, Kurdish woman, who after being forced into a van and taken to the morality police headquarters, faints and is later pronounced dead. As with any murder mystery, there are varying hypotheses: was she beaten in the van? Or did she have a pre-existing condition?

Today, there is a growing rift in Iranian society, and it’s one between religious extremists, who believe mandatory hijab is the benchmark of Sharia Law, and those who want to be free of any religious restrictions imposed on their lives by the state.

Now, a word of caution: some of my fellow Iranians from the latter group may rightfully object that their team will accept nothing but the complete abolishment of the regime in power. However, any realistic take must account for those Iranians who directly/indirectly work for the government or are otherwise devoted to the regime through religious beliefs or just faith, but are still displeased with the mandatory enforcing of hijab.

As you read this, please bear in mind that many of these camps have their own moderates and extremists. In what follows, I hope to give you a balanced view of what is going on within each circle.

Let’s start with the protestors. Who are they? And what do they want?

When you look at Iran through the lens of Hollywood films and Fox News (or any other Western news outlet for that matter), you’re often shown the religious group because Western media seeks to portray Iranians as “dangerous” as this will enforce any future plans they may have brewing for the country, just as the Japanese were vilified prior to the attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

But the truth is, many Iranians are either not religious at all, or simply follow Islam as a personal faith. When inside, Iranians women from this class do not wear hijab in front of members of the opposite sex, drinking is common, and many western values are adopted. These are the same expats you see who surprise you when they order alcohol or add bacon to their burger.

Most of these people are from the growing middle class. They tend to live in larger cities, have non-religious and/or higher education, and are more likely to have travelled to the United States, Canada, Europe and Turkey, rather than Iraq, or Saudi Arabia.

People from this class are far less likely to be supporters of the regime because of the constant harassment from the central government in what they deem to be a blatant violation of their individual rights. These people have had to live through periods where men weren’t allowed to wear short sleeves or women were told that the veil is the only acceptable form of hijab. And it’s not just about attire either: during the earlier days, cars would be stopped to check what kind of music cassettes were being played, or women were told not to speak with male classmates in university hallways.

These Iranians have always fought back by pushing the envelope inch by inch just as their women pulled back their headscarves inch by inch. Most of the immigrants from Iran who have chosen to live in Europe, Canada, Australia and the United States are from this class of society. They are forced, in many cases, to vote with their feet and start a new life somewhere they can have individual rights and freedoms.

The non-religious Iranians, as I noted above, do not all want the same thing, and I’m not going to weight in on which sun-group’s bigger. Without polling data, no one can realistically answer this question. There are those who want the regime to be toppled and replaced. Some want the late Shah’s kindred to regain the throne; some are close to political fractions and organizations actively pursuing regime change, others are hoping to form a truly democratic system that welcomes all regardless of their faith, ethnicity, or political leanings. This sub-group is not backed by any political fraction either inside or outside the country.

Following the death of Mahsa Amini, these were the people who took to the streets to show their resentment towards the regime’s disregard for women’s rights to choose their own clothes and the improper way in which women were treated by the morality police.

Now that we’ve covered the first group, let’s take a closer look at the folks on the other side of the line.

If you’re thinking to yourself, “who in their right mind supports forcing women into vans anmid economic hardship, crushing Internafional sanctions and growing discontent?”, then you’ve come to the right place!

Meet the most extreme version of our religious group. Many of these people are raised in families where religion has been a constant presence. Some are close to religious teachers, others come from wealthy traders and figures in the bazaar, and some actually believe in the religious doctrines as prescribed by their Shiite jurisprudence leaders. They believe it’s their job to uphold the legacy of those who established the Islamic revolution and its martyrs by ensuring religious piety which includes women’s duty to cover their heads in public. They look at this situation and think of ways to improve the efficiency with which violators are identified and penalized for their lack of respect. They’ve been proposing fines and other forms of civil restrictions. They are holding ground and are not willing to back down.

But to be fair, not everyone in the religious group is a fanatic. Some believe in pretty much everything their fanatic counterparts do, except the need to forcefully enforce the laws. They think it’s best to leave it to people to decide for themselves.

Even politicians close to the higher echelons of power have voiced their concerns over the recent events and have called for a loosening of restrictions and even the abolishment of mandatory hijab altogether.

This group is viewed as sellouts by both parties on the left and right for they are either believed to be protecting the regime from downfall or turning their backs on their God and religion.

Both accusations can be right for some of the people in this group, but there are also those who see violence as never being the solution. When violence is unleashed, the flames can easily get out of control. Who’s to stop agent provocateurs from inciting violent reactions, or personal vendettas disguised as political rifts? This is what scares the moderates, regardless of whether they’re religious or secular, pro- or anti-government.